In the article are considered the principal reasons of differences in observed and calculation fre-quencies of emergency events in complex technological systems, including NPP. Analyzed simplification inherent in the probabilistic model of work of the reactor. The results of application of power-law probabil-ity distribution are presented for the estimation of consequences of catastrophes in complex and dangerous technologies.

Keywords: reactor unit, nuclear power plant, probabilistic safety analysis, risk-oriented approach, self-organized criticality, power-law probability distribution.

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